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	Name:	MartiniMan -
	Subject:	As November approaches don't believe the polls
	Date:	8/27/2010 2:36:34 PM

After looking at the primary results and looking back at 2006 do not believe the polls if they start to show any increase in Dem election prospects. The reason is two-fold: 1) most polls (not all) oversample Democrats and Independents and tend to understate GOP numbers. Instead watch closely what the candidates themselves do (not what they say). If you see increasing desperation on the part of a candidate it tells you what their internal polls are showing. 2) most polls don't do a good job gauging voter intensity. In this election cycle, as evidenced by turnout and the primaries show much bigger intensity by Republicans than Dems.

What I also find interesting is the progression between leans, toss up, etc. is clearly headed toward the GOP. What was a toss up is now leans GOP, what is leans Dem is now a toss up, etc. Of course the Dems have more money and they will spend it so the races will all tighten near the end. And I will never cease to be amazed by the GOP grasping defeat from the jaws of victory......but for now it looks like a rout, especially given the anemic GDP growth downgraded from the improbable numbers being talked about earlier this year.

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As November approaches don't believe the polls - MartiniMan - 8/27/2010 2:36:34 PM

Seriously, DON'T believe the polls - Barneget - 8/27/2010 2:50:55 PM

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