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Name:	GoneFishin -	Reply
Subject:	New Tax
Date:	10/6/2009 10:42:51 PM

I sense that a tax committee is going to recommend a VAT(national sales tax) goods not considered necessary. They will exclude food and medical services. They will also recommend a refund based on income since the VAT hits lower income.

Name:	MartiniMan -	Reply
Subject:	New Tax
Date:	10/7/2009 8:24:58 AM

GF, Pelosi specifically mentioned a VAT as a tax that was "on the table". It was mentioned as a way to pay for the burgeoning deficits. For some reason it never occurs to those in Washington of either party that reducing spending is a better way. We are on a path toward European economic malaise where 10% unemployment is accepted as the norm, work is optional and the underground economy is huge.

Heard a story from a friend that lived in Ireland for 10 years. He said that the only way people sell property over there is if its a cash transaction because the taxes are so high.

Name:	water_watcher -	Reply
Subject:	New Tax
Date:	10/7/2009 6:12:11 PM

I just got out of a meeting with a major bank and the picture they are painting for interest rates is not pretty. It is backed up by the huge federal debt and using a historical model that they showed has never been very far off.

I have a chart that shows the federal debt, and while it grew in the Bush years due to the Iraq war, the level for 2009 is more than double and the following five year projects they have is it continues to get worse.

I used to put together 20-30 interest rate swaps for one of my clients to fix variable rate debt. They said that due to the uncertainty they will only do 5 year swaps now (which is hardly worth it).

They did feel rates are going to stay relatively low through 2010, but all heck could break lose in the 2011 and 2012 time frame.

They had one model that showed rates going over 20% if the feds keep spending at the same level. They said increasing taxes (as it has done in the past) will have a negative impact on interest rate, since it will reduce growth and therefore revenue to the fed.

Lastly, they pointed out that Australia just increased their discount rate and felt our federal reserve will probably start incremental increases in 2010 just to prevent the dollar from going lower.

Oh yeah ... oil prices ... due to the low value of the US dollar, with even a moderate recovery, they have oil prices over $200 a barrel in 2011.

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